Here's who/what I would pick (*) and who/what I think will win (+).

Picture:
+ "The Aviator,"
"Finding Neverland,"
"Million Dollar Baby,"
"Ray,"
* "Sideways."

Director:
+ Martin Scorsese, "The Aviator"
Clint Eastwood, "Million Dollar Baby"
* Taylor Hackford, "Ray"
Alexander Payne, "Sideways"
Mike Leigh, "Vera Drake."

Actor:
Don Cheadle, "Hotel Rwanda"
Johnny Depp, "Finding Neverland"
Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Aviator"
Clint Eastwood, "Million Dollar Baby"
+* Jamie Foxx, "Ray."

Actress:
Annette Bening, "Being Julia"
Catalina Sandino Moreno, "Maria Full of Grace"
Imelda Staunton, "Vera Drake"
+ Hilary Swank, "Million Dollar Baby"
* Kate Winslet, "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind."

Supporting Actor:
Alan Alda, "The Aviator"
Jamie Foxx, "Collateral"
Morgan Freeman, "Million Dollar Baby"
+ Thomas Haden Church, "Sideways"
* Clive Owen, "Closer."

Supporting Actress:
+ Cate Blanchett, "The Aviator"
Laura Linney, "Kinsey"
Virginia Madsen, "Sideways"
Sophie Okonedo, "Hotel Rwanda"
* Natalie Portman, "Closer."

Writing (Adapted Screenplay):
Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy and Ethan Hawke, "Before Sunset"
David Magee, "Finding Neverland"
Paul Haggis, "Million Dollar Baby"
* Jose Rivera, "The Motorcycle Diaries"
+ Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor, "Sideways."

Writing (Original Screenplay):
John Logan, "The Aviator"
+* Charlie Kaufman, Michel Gondry and Pierre Bismuth, "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind"
Keir Pearson and Terry George, "Hotel Rwanda"
Brad Bird, "The Incredibles"
Mike Leigh, "Vera Drake."

Animated Feature Film:
+* "The Incredibles,"
"Shark Tale,"
"Shrek 2."

Art Direction:
"The Aviator,"
+ "Finding Neverland,"
"Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events,"
"The Phantom of the Opera,"
* "A Very Long Engagement."

Cinematography:
+ "The Aviator,"
"House of Flying Daggers,"
"The Passion of the Christ,"
"The Phantom of the Opera,"
* "A Very Long Engagement."

Film Editing:
+ "The Aviator,"
* "Collateral,"
"Finding Neverland,"
"Million Dollar Baby,"
"Ray."

Costume Design:
+ "The Aviator,"
"Finding Neverland,"
"Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events,"
"Ray,"
* "Troy."

Makeup:
* "Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events,"
+ "The Passion of the Christ,"
"The Sea Inside."

Original Score:
+ "Finding Neverland,"
"Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban,"
"Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events,"
"The Passion of the Christ,"
* "The Village."

Original Song:
* "Accidentally In Love" from "Shrek 2,"
"Al Otro Lado Del Rio" from "The Motorcycle Diaries,"
"Believe" from "The Polar Express,"
"Learn To Be Lonely" from "The Phantom of the Opera,"
+ "Look To Your Path (Vois Sur Ton Chemin)" from "The Chorus (Les Choristes)."

Sound Editing:
* "The Incredibles,"
+ "The Polar Express,"
"Spider-Man 2."

Sound Mixing:
"The Aviator,"
"The Incredibles,"
"The Polar Express,"
*+ "Ray,"
"Spider-Man 2."

Visual Effects:
"Harry Potter and the Prince of Azkaban,"
* "I, Robot,"
+ "Spider-Man 2."

A pretty poor selection by the Academy, in my opinion, of a pretty good year for movies. There were only a few tough choices for me here, choosing between Catalina Moreno and Kate Winslet for best actress for one. I think The Aviator is offically overrated as of ... now.